Should win: Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix) Will win: Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)Ĭould win: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures) A win for her would be unprecedented for a leading actor - but this year, where stats continue to crash and burn, it makes perfect sense. Nevertheless, Cruz has two prestigious prizes from Los Angeles Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics in the pocket.
“Parallel Mothers” from Oscar winner Pedro Almodóvar seemed to be a movie that voters watched late in the game, which could explain its poor showing on the BAFTA longlist, where it only was shortlisted for original screenplay and international feature.
Harden’s run that year for Ed Harris’ directorial debut (coincidentally Colman’s co-star in “The Lost Daughter”) only included a win at the New York Film Critics Circle. In 27 years of the four awards shows existing, only Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2000) has been able to win without a mention at any of them. However, it leaves many people feeling “cold” by the end, as opposed to other competitors whose films have “happier” demeanors.Ĭruz, who won the Oscar for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (2008), is walking into the ceremony without a single nomination from any televised awards ceremonies. The film has respect for its debut direction by Maggie Gyllenhaal, and it even managed to pull in an additional nom for Jessie Buckley in supporting actress. With “The Lost Daughter,” it’s a bit more challenging. Colman hasn’t been on the campaign trail, but that doesn’t necessarily hurt her winning chances since she did the same thing with “The Favourite” (2018) and managed to upset the presumptive locked-up best actress winner Glenn Close for “The Wife.” And that also came with Colman’s film losing nine of its 10 nominations. When it comes to Colman and Cruz, they appeal greatly to the international demographic of the Academy. There doesn’t seem to be a rallying cry to give her another statuette at this time. But despite “Being the Ricardos” landing an impressive three acting noms (without any others, the first since “The Master” to achieve this feat) – the buzz has subsided. Kidman, a previous Oscar winner for “The Hours” (2002), is walking into the ceremony with a Golden Globe win for lead actress drama. However, if enough voters gave it the time to watch, especially in the artisan categories, she could have the support of more than 60% of the Academy.
Stewart’s hurdle is being the only nomination for her movie. However, all of the women have varying levels of support. But based on a small sampling of voters, this awards race isn’t “easy” to predict.īased on that small sampling, the race has narrowed down to Chastain and, believe it or not, Penélope Cruz for “Parallel Mothers.” This does not entirely dismiss an outcome in which Olivia Colman for “The Lost Daughter,” Nicole Kidman for “Being the Ricardos” or Kristen Stewart for “Spencer” can win. For the second year in a row, the best actress race will be a nail-biter.ĭespite a wide-open race, only Jessica Chastain’s work in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” has won more than one statuette at a televised ceremony – Critics Choice and SAG – so any of the five women (in theory) can win this award.ĪMPAS houses nearly 10,000 industry professionals worldwide, and it’s almost impossible to reach them all and gauge their tastes or know who they ultimately voted for.